Union, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

183
FXUS61 KBGM 191103
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
703 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend starts partly sunny with warming temperatures
today. A frontal system will pass on Sunday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather and high pressure returns
for the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will slide east off the coast of New England this
morning. Light return SW flow around the high will increase
temperatures and humidity today with highs in the 70s-mid 80s.
High pressure should keep most of the region dry today, but
there could be slight chance for an isolated shower in northeast
PA in the Wyoming Valley- Poconos as a stationary front drifts
north through PA.

Cold front starts dropping out of Ontario Sunday morning. Timing
of this front is still a little uncertain, but showers and
thunderstorms may start to occur across the western CWA by
sunrise Sunday. The front will drop southward through the day,
and depending on the timing, enough instability may build up
before FROPA Sunday afternoon to allow for a few potent
thunderstorms across the the Southern Tier and NE PA. Forecast
soundings do show about 40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear and about
1500 J/kg of CAPE developing from Ithaca/Binghamton on
southeastward into NE PA and the Catskills. Further north and
west across Central NY and the Finger Lakes, instability is a
little more uncertain with forecast soundings showing CAPE
values at less than 1000 J/kg. SPC has most of our CWA now in a
marginal risk Sunday and slight risk for severe thunderstorms across
portions of the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills/Poconos. For
now, will start to highlight areas in the slight risk area in
the HWO, but where confidence is lower, we will hold off to
mention it until confidence is higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

Showers will gradually taper off Sunday night as drier air moves
in behind the front. Skies will clear as northwest flow returns,
setting the stage for another cool night with lows dipping into
the low to mid 50s. High pressure will build back into the
region on Monday, keeping conditions calm and dry. With
continued northwest flow, temperatures will remain on the cooler
side, with highs only reaching the low to mid 70s. Overnight,
the pattern persists with clear skies and light winds, ideal for
radiational cooling. Expect temperatures to drop into the mid
40s to low 50s by early Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 AM Update...

High pressure will remain centered over the region on Tuesday,
bringing mostly sunny skies and comfortable conditions.
Northerly flow will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
By Wednesday an upper level ridge will build into the northeast,
shifting winds to the southwest. This will gradually advect a
warmer and more humid airmass. Temperatures will rise into the
low to mid 80s by Wednesday afternoon. The quiet pattern
continues through midweek, before a shift to westerly flow aloft
develops on Thursday. This will draw moisture into the region,
leading to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
especially Thursday night into Friday. By late week,
temperatures will trend warmer with highs reaching the mid 80s
to low 90s by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected until later tonight. A marine
layer stratus deck will possibly work its way into AVP towards
around midnight and may also push farther north into BGM and ELM
during the early morning hours on Sunday. Finally, a frontal
system will be approaching the region on Sunday morning and a
prefrontal trough could bring some MVFR rain showers into SYR
and RME towards the end of the forecast period.


Outlook...

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday..Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MDP
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK